Birth rates are falling across both low- and high-income countries, but the reasons behind this trend and its implications differ widely.

In Western countries, declining fertility is often discussed as an economic challenge linked to an ageing workforce. At the individual level, decisions about whether to have children, and if so when is the right time, are influenced by housing costs, job security, not to mention the added difficulty of balancing work and family life.

In many developing countries, the same trend is understood differently. Falling fertility rates can be seen as a sign of progress, reflecting improved healthcare and expanded opportunities for women. At the same time, decisions about having children remain closely connected to poverty, health, education, and access to basic services.

Money, Policy, and Fertility

In both high- and low-income contexts, cash transfer programs exist, though they are designed with very different objectives.

In Western countries, child allowances are one of the most familiar forms of child-related cash transfers. They are targeted in who receives them, but flexible in how the money is used. Its purpose is not to encourage expanding families, but rather to provide steady support that strengthens household stability, supports children’s development, and eases financial stress.

By contrast, when cash transfers are explicitly designed to raise birth rates, such as one-off baby bonuses, they rarely deliver lasting results. Different Western countries have tried this approach, with a familiar outcome: a brief increase in births followed by a return to the long-term decline. People do not end up having more children; they simply have them a little earlier.

In lower-income countries, cash transfers often step in where public systems fall short. Here, their role is not to influence fertility rates at all, but to provide a basic foundation of stability.

This is where Social Income fits into the broader conversation. We do not seek to shape population trends or influence decisions about having children. Our focus is on offering stability, dignity, and predictability in contexts where these are too often absent. Ideally, stronger welfare systems and broader economic opportunity in lower-income countries will one day make this kind of support unnecessary. Until then, we support people living in poverty who have no other help to rely on.

These sources provided background and insights

The Impact of Family Benefits on Fertility

OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers

by OECD

The Demographic Transition Model

Gapminder

by Hans Rosling

Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100

The Lancet

by Stein Emil Vollset, et al.